White=3,Green=6,Blue=N−9,Total=N
3 draws, randomly, without replacement
P(W1∩G2∩B3)=5N2
P(B3∣W1∩G2)=92
To find: N
P(W1)=N3,P(G1)=N6,P(B1)=NN−9
P(W2∣W1)=N−12,P(G2∣W1)=N−16,P(B2∣W1)=N−1N−9
P(W3∣W1∩G2)=N−22,P(G3∣W1∩G2)=N−25
P(B3∣W1∩G2)=N−2N−9
1. P(W1∩G2∩B3) by the multiplication rule
2. set it equal to 5N2⇒a quadratic in N
3. use P(B3∣W1∩G2)=92 to select the right N
P(W1∩G2∩B3)=P(W1)P(G2∣W1)P(B3∣W1∩G2)
=N3⋅N−16⋅N−2N−9=N(N−1)(N−2)18(N−9)
N(N−1)(N−2)18(N−9)=5N2
⇒(N−1)(N−2)18(N−9)=52
⇒18(N−9)⋅5=2(N−1)(N−2)
⇒45(N−9)=(N−1)(N−2)
45N−405=N2−3N+2
⇒N2−48N+407=0
D=482−4(407)=2304−1628=676=262
N=248±26=11 or 37
P(B3∣W1∩G2)=N−2N−9=92
9(N−9)=2(N−2)
9N−81=2N−4⇒7N=77⇒N=11
N=37: 37−237−9=3528=54=92 ✗
⇒N=11
N=11: 3W, 6G, 2B
P(W1∩G2∩B3)=113⋅106⋅92=99036=552
5N2=552 ✓
P(B3∣W1∩G2)=11−211−9=92 ✓
N=11