arthham

JEE Advanced 2024 · Probability (Class 12)

A bag contains N balls out of which 3 balls are white, 6 balls are green, and the remaining balls are blue. Assume that the balls are identical otherwise. Three balls are drawn randomly one after the other without replacement. For i=1,2,3,i = 1, 2, 3, let Wi,GiW_{i}, G_{i} and BiB_{i} denote the events that the ball drawn in the i-th draw is a white ball, green ball, and blue ball, respectively. If the probability P(W1∩G2∩B3)=2/(5N)P(W_{1} ∩ G_{2} ∩ B_{3}) = 2/(5N) and the conditional probability P(B3∣W1∩G2)=29,P(B_{3} | W_{1} ∩ G_{2}) = \frac{2}{9}, then N equals ______.

Answer: 1111

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White=3,Green=6,Blue=N−9,Total=N\text{White} = 3,\quad \text{Green} = 6,\quad \text{Blue} = N - 9,\quad \text{Total} = N 3 draws, randomly, without replacement3 \text{ draws, randomly, without replacement} P(W1∩G2∩B3)=25NP(W_1 \cap G_2 \cap B_3) = \dfrac{2}{5N} P(B3∣W1∩G2)=29P(B_3 \mid W_1 \cap G_2) = \dfrac{2}{9} To find: N\text{To find: } N P(W1)=3N,P(G1)=6N,P(B1)=N−9NP(W_1) = \dfrac{3}{N},\quad P(G_1) = \dfrac{6}{N},\quad P(B_1) = \dfrac{N-9}{N} P(W2∣W1)=2N−1,P(G2∣W1)=6N−1,P(B2∣W1)=N−9N−1P(W_2 \mid W_1) = \dfrac{2}{N-1},\quad P(G_2 \mid W_1) = \dfrac{6}{N-1},\quad P(B_2 \mid W_1) = \dfrac{N-9}{N-1} P(W3∣W1∩G2)=2N−2,P(G3∣W1∩G2)=5N−2P(W_3 \mid W_1 \cap G_2) = \dfrac{2}{N-2},\quad P(G_3 \mid W_1 \cap G_2) = \dfrac{5}{N-2} P(B3∣W1∩G2)=N−9N−2P(B_3 \mid W_1 \cap G_2) = \dfrac{N-9}{N-2} 1. P(W1∩G2∩B3) by the multiplication rule1.\ P(W_1 \cap G_2 \cap B_3) \text{ by the multiplication rule} 2. set it equal to 25N⇒a quadratic in N2.\ \text{set it equal to } \dfrac{2}{5N} \Rightarrow \text{a quadratic in } N 3. use P(B3∣W1∩G2)=29 to select the right N3.\ \text{use } P(B_3 \mid W_1 \cap G_2) = \dfrac{2}{9} \text{ to select the right } N P(W1∩G2∩B3)=P(W1) P(G2∣W1) P(B3∣W1∩G2)P(W_1 \cap G_2 \cap B_3) = P(W_1)\,P(G_2 \mid W_1)\,P(B_3 \mid W_1 \cap G_2) =3N⋅6N−1⋅N−9N−2=18(N−9)N(N−1)(N−2)= \dfrac{3}{N} \cdot \dfrac{6}{N-1} \cdot \dfrac{N-9}{N-2} = \dfrac{18(N-9)}{N(N-1)(N-2)} 18(N−9)N(N−1)(N−2)=25N\dfrac{18(N-9)}{N(N-1)(N-2)} = \dfrac{2}{5N} ⇒18(N−9)(N−1)(N−2)=25\Rightarrow \dfrac{18(N-9)}{(N-1)(N-2)} = \dfrac{2}{5} ⇒18(N−9)⋅5=2(N−1)(N−2)\Rightarrow 18(N-9)\cdot 5 = 2(N-1)(N-2) ⇒45(N−9)=(N−1)(N−2)\Rightarrow 45(N-9) = (N-1)(N-2) 45N−405=N2−3N+245N - 405 = N^2 - 3N + 2 ⇒N2−48N+407=0\Rightarrow N^2 - 48N + 407 = 0 D=482−4(407)=2304−1628=676=262D = 48^2 - 4(407) = 2304 - 1628 = 676 = 26^2 N=48±262=11 or 37N = \dfrac{48 \pm 26}{2} = 11 \ \text{or} \ 37 P(B3∣W1∩G2)=N−9N−2=29P(B_3 \mid W_1 \cap G_2) = \dfrac{N-9}{N-2} = \dfrac{2}{9} 9(N−9)=2(N−2)9(N-9) = 2(N-2) 9N−81=2N−4⇒7N=77⇒N=119N - 81 = 2N - 4 \Rightarrow 7N = 77 \Rightarrow N = 11 N=37: 37−937−2=2835=45≠29 ✗N = 37:\ \dfrac{37-9}{37-2} = \dfrac{28}{35} = \dfrac{4}{5} \neq \dfrac{2}{9}\ \text{✗} ⇒N=11\Rightarrow N = 11 N=11: 3W, 6G, 2BN = 11:\ 3W,\ 6G,\ 2B P(W1∩G2∩B3)=311⋅610⋅29=36990=255P(W_1 \cap G_2 \cap B_3) = \dfrac{3}{11}\cdot\dfrac{6}{10}\cdot\dfrac{2}{9} = \dfrac{36}{990} = \dfrac{2}{55} 25N=255 ✓\dfrac{2}{5N} = \dfrac{2}{55}\ \checkmark P(B3∣W1∩G2)=11−911−2=29 ✓P(B_3 \mid W_1 \cap G_2) = \dfrac{11-9}{11-2} = \dfrac{2}{9}\ \checkmark N=11\boxed{N = 11}

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