Three students S₁, S₂, and S₃ are given a problem to solve. Consider the following events: U: At least one of S₁, S₂, and S₃ can solve the problem, V: S₁ can solve the problem, given that neither S₂ nor S₃ can solve the problem, W: S₂ can solve the problem and S₃ cannot solve the problem, T: S₃ can solve the problem. For any event E, let P(E) denote the probability of E. If P(U)=1/2, P(V)=1/10, and P(W)=1/12, then P(T) is equal to
U:at least one of S1,S2,S3 solves
V:S1 solves ∣ neither S2 nor S3 solves
W:S2 solves, S3 cannot;T:S3 solves
P(U)=21,P(V)=101,P(W)=121
To find: P(T)
pi=P(Si solves),i=1,2,3
Independent⇒same branch probabilities on every subtree
Path probability=product along branches; add across
Plan: 1. V⇒p12. W⇒p2(1−p3)
3. U⇒1−(1−p1)(1−p2)(1−p3)
P(V)=P(S1∣S2′∩S3′)=P(S1)=p1(independence)
p1=101,1−p1=109
P(W)=P(S2∩S3′)=p2(1−p3)=121
P(U)=1−P(none solves)=1−(1−p1)(1−p2)(1−p3)=21
21=109(1−p2)(1−p3)
⇒(1−p2)(1−p3)=95
q2=1−p2,q3=1−p3
q2q3=95,p2q3=(1−q2)q3=121
q3−q2q3=121
q3−95=121⇒q3=95+121
q3=3620+3=3623
p3=1−q3=3613
P(T)=p3=3613∴Option (1)