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JEE Advanced 2015 · Probability (Class 12)

The minimum number of times a fair coin needs to be tossed, so that the probability of getting at least two heads is at least 0.960.96, is

Answer: 88

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Written solution

Given: fair coin, P(H)=P(T)=12\text{Given: fair coin, } P(H) = P(T) = \dfrac{1}{2}

n=number of tosses,P(at least 2 heads)≥0.96n = \text{number of tosses}, \quad P(\text{at least 2 heads}) \geq 0.96

To find: minimum n with P(X≥2)≥0.96\text{To find: minimum } n \text{ with } P(X \geq 2) \geq 0.96

P(X≥2)=1−P(X=0)−P(X=1)P(X \geq 2) = 1 - P(X=0) - P(X=1) Require P(X≥2)≥0.96\text{Require } P(X \geq 2) \geq 0.96 P(X=0)=(12)nP(X=0) = \left(\dfrac{1}{2}\right)^{n} P(X=1)=n(12)nP(X=1) = n\left(\dfrac{1}{2}\right)^{n} P(X=0)+P(X=1)=n+12nP(X=0) + P(X=1) = \dfrac{n+1}{2^{n}} P(X≥2)=1−n+12nP(X \geq 2) = 1 - \dfrac{n+1}{2^{n}} 1−n+12n≥0.96  ⟺  n+12n≤0.041 - \dfrac{n+1}{2^{n}} \geq 0.96 \iff \dfrac{n+1}{2^{n}} \leq 0.04 Need n+12n≤0.04\text{Need } \dfrac{n+1}{2^{n}} \leq 0.04 n=7: 8128=116=0.0625>0.04 ✗n=7:\ \dfrac{8}{128} = \dfrac{1}{16} = 0.0625 > 0.04\ \text{✗} n=8: 9256=0.0352<0.04 ✓n=8:\ \dfrac{9}{256} = 0.0352 < 0.04\ \checkmark P(X≥2)=1−9256=247256≈0.9648≥0.96 ✓P(X \geq 2) = 1 - \dfrac{9}{256} = \dfrac{247}{256} \approx 0.9648 \geq 0.96\ \checkmark Minimum number of tosses=8\text{Minimum number of tosses} = 8

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