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JEE Advanced 2019 · Probability (Class 12)

There are three bags B1B_1, B2B_2, and B3B_3. The bag B1B_1 contains 5 red and 5 green balls, B2B_2 contains 3 red and 5 green balls, and B3B_3 contains 5 red and 3 green balls. Bags B1B_1, B2B_2 and B3B_3 have probabilities 310\frac{3}{10}, 310\frac{3}{10} and 410\frac{4}{10} respectively of being chosen. A bag is selected at random and a ball is chosen at random from the bag. Then which of the following options is/are correct?

Answers: B. Probability that the chosen ball is green, given that the selected bag is B3B_3, equals 38\frac{3}{8} · D. Probability that the chosen ball is green equals 3980\frac{39}{80}

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Written solution

There are three bags B₁, B₂, and B₃. The bag B₁ contains 5 red and 5 green balls, B₂ contains 3 red and 5 green balls, and B₃ contains 5 red and 3 green balls. Bags B₁, B₂ and B₃ have probabilities 3/10, 3/10 and 4/10 respectively of being chosen. A bag is selected at random and a ball is chosen at random from the bag. Then which of the following options is/are correct?

Given: B1: 5R, 5G;B2: 3R, 5G;B3: 5R, 3G\text{Given: } B_1:\ 5R,\,5G;\quad B_2:\ 3R,\,5G;\quad B_3:\ 5R,\,3G

P(B1)=310,P(B2)=310,P(B3)=410P(B_1)=\tfrac{3}{10},\quad P(B_2)=\tfrac{3}{10},\quad P(B_3)=\tfrac{4}{10}

A bag is chosen first, then a ball is drawn from it.\text{A bag is chosen first, then a ball is drawn from it.}

To check: which of (1),(2),(3),(4) is/are correct\text{To check: which of } (1),(2),(3),(4) \text{ is/are correct}

(1) P(B3∩G)=310(2) P(G∣B3)=38(1)\ P(B_3\cap G)=\tfrac{3}{10} \qquad (2)\ P(G\mid B_3)=\tfrac{3}{8}

(3) P(B3∣G)=513(4) P(G)=3980(3)\ P(B_3\mid G)=\tfrac{5}{13} \qquad (4)\ P(G)=\tfrac{39}{80}

P(B1)=310,P(B2)=310,P(B3)=410P(B_1)=\tfrac{3}{10},\quad P(B_2)=\tfrac{3}{10},\quad P(B_3)=\tfrac{4}{10}

P(G∣B1)=510=12,P(R∣B1)=510=12P(G\mid B_1)=\tfrac{5}{10}=\tfrac{1}{2},\qquad P(R\mid B_1)=\tfrac{5}{10}=\tfrac{1}{2}

P(G∣B2)=58,P(R∣B2)=38P(G\mid B_2)=\tfrac{5}{8},\qquad P(R\mid B_2)=\tfrac{3}{8}

P(G∣B3)=38,P(R∣B3)=58P(G\mid B_3)=\tfrac{3}{8},\qquad P(R\mid B_3)=\tfrac{5}{8}

P(G∣B3)=38=option (2)  ⇒  (2) ✓P(G\mid B_3)=\tfrac{3}{8}=\text{option }(2) \;\Rightarrow\; (2)\ \checkmark

P(B3∩G)=P(B3)⋅P(G∣B3)=410×38P(B_3\cap G)=P(B_3)\cdot P(G\mid B_3)=\tfrac{4}{10}\times\tfrac{3}{8}

=1280=320=\tfrac{12}{80}=\tfrac{3}{20}

320≠310  ⇒  (1) ×\tfrac{3}{20} \neq \tfrac{3}{10} \;\Rightarrow\; (1)\ \times

P(G)=P(B1)P(G∣B1)+P(B2)P(G∣B2)+P(B3)P(G∣B3)P(G)=P(B_1)P(G\mid B_1)+P(B_2)P(G\mid B_2)+P(B_3)P(G\mid B_3)

=310⋅12+310⋅58+410⋅38=\tfrac{3}{10}\cdot\tfrac{1}{2}+\tfrac{3}{10}\cdot\tfrac{5}{8}+\tfrac{4}{10}\cdot\tfrac{3}{8}

=320+1580+1280=\tfrac{3}{20}+\tfrac{15}{80}+\tfrac{12}{80}

=12+15+1280=3980=option (4)  ⇒  (4) ✓=\tfrac{12+15+12}{80}=\tfrac{39}{80}=\text{option }(4) \;\Rightarrow\; (4)\ \checkmark

P(B3∣G)=P(B3∩G)P(G)=3/2039/80P(B_3\mid G)=\dfrac{P(B_3\cap G)}{P(G)}=\dfrac{3/20}{39/80}

=320×8039=3×8020×39=\dfrac{3}{20}\times\dfrac{80}{39}=\dfrac{3\times 80}{20\times 39}

=1239=413=\dfrac{12}{39}=\dfrac{4}{13}

413≠513  ⇒  (3) ×\tfrac{4}{13} \neq \tfrac{5}{13} \;\Rightarrow\; (3)\ \times

(1) ×,(2) ✓,(3) ×,(4) ✓(1)\ \times,\quad (2)\ \checkmark,\quad (3)\ \times,\quad (4)\ \checkmark

Correct options: (2) and (4)\boxed{\text{Correct options: }(2)\ \text{and}\ (4)}

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